A possible rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump looms large in the election calendar; a Trump victory in November is perhaps the greatest global wildcard. Yet high-stakes votes before then also will gauge the “mood of dissatisfaction, impatience, uneasiness” among far-flung electorates, said Bronwen Maddox, director of the London-based think-tank Chatham House. The Biden administration is sending a delegation of former officials to Taiwan following the election, in a move that a senior administration official earlier this past week said was standard. The Congress has seen a steep decline – it’s share of votes and seats falling since the mid-1980s. In 2019, it picked up 20% of the popular vote, won a paltry 52 seats and lost its second consecutive election.
Acting on the complaints, the government issued 2.6 million such certificates in six weeks. Cobbling together a third opposition alliance is neither “doable or sustainable” because a rag-tag coalition does not bring, which has not already been tested and rejected by voters, to the table,” Mr Kishor said.
South Sudan, the world’s youngest country, plans to hold its long-delayed first elections in December. The balloting would represent a key milestone but could be rife with danger and vulnerable to failure under current conditions. In South Africa, a legislative election due between May and August has a struggling economy, crippling power blackouts and an unemployment rate of nearly 32% as the political backdrop. Overcoming voter disillusionment will be a challenge for the long-dominant African National Congress. Pakistan’s Feb. 8 parliamentary election also is being contested by well-established politicians, under the eye of the country’s powerful military. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, a popular opposition figure, is imprisoned, and election officials blocked him from running. Voters in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest democracy, are choosing a successor to President Joko Widodo on Feb. 14.
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And in many, curbs on opposition candidates, weary electorates and the potential for manipulation and disinformation have made the fate of democracy a front-and-center campaign issue. From Russia, Taiwan and the United Kingdom to India, El Salvador and South Africa, the presidential and legislative contests have huge implications for human rights, economies, international relations and prospects for peace in a volatile world. “Still, by signaling the durability of the DPP’s hold on the electorate, the election outcome may force mainland leaders to reconsider their policy of complete freezeout,” Wildau wrote in a note.
US election top risk to world no matter who wins: consultancy
Read more about Monitoring and Evaluation here. Lai and incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen reject China’s sovereignty claims over Taiwan, a former Japanese colony that split from the mainland amid civil war in 1949. They have, however, offered to speak with Beijing, which has repeatedly refused to hold talks and called them separatists.
It would have provided a helpful boost for living standards and economic growth in a key election year on both sides of the Atlantic. Populism gained ground in Europe as the continent experienced economic instability and mass migration from elsewhere. June elections for the parliament of the 27-nation European Union will be a sign of whether traditional parties can see off populist rivals, many of which are skeptical of military support for Ukraine. To his supporters, Modi is a political outsider who has cleaned up after decades of corruption and made India an emerging global power. Critics say assaults on the press and free speech, as well as attacks on religious minorities by Hindu nationalists, have grown brazen on his watch.
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— Republican Adam Laxalt, who unsuccessfully ran for Nevada Senate, is chair of Never Back Down. — Duty and Honor PAC, a Democratic group affiliated with the Senate Majority PAC, is investing early in the race for West Virginia Senate. Last week, Republican group One Nation, which is aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, put out an ad hitting Manchin. … Former state Sen. Curtis Hertel and Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum, both Democrats, are considering campaigns to succeed Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in MI-07 as she runs for Senate, per the AP’s Joey Cappelletti. The Eurasia Group ranked the violence in the Middle East as the second greatest global risk, with the Israel-Hamas war “likely to be only the first phase in an expanding conflict in 2024.” Meanwhile, a second-term Trump would be expected to “weaponize” the US government to go after rivals and crush dissent, it added.
Beijing seems likely to continue to shun exchanges with the DPP-led government of Taiwan, according to Gabriel Wildau, an analyst at the consultancy Teneo. China has “very significant economic challenges and I don’t think that they are ready [to use] any military options to resolve this issue,” he said.